LED Backlights For TVs Coming Faster Than Anticipated

May 26, 2006

Conventional wisdom sees LED-based backlights not making significant inroads into large screen LCD-TVs until 2009 or so. But based on in-depth analyses done by Insight Media, we now believe LED backlights will be adopted much faster than previously thought. Driving this conclusion are several factors. First, development of high-brightness LEDs is occurring even faster than our earlier aggressive forecasts. These developments promise brighter, more compact LEDs. This will in turn, enable the use of edge-illuminated backlight methods - even for large area LCD-TVs. Many developers are focused on direct LED backlights, which we don't believe will become price-performance competitive any time soon. Edge-illuminated backlights require fewer LEDs, and if forecasts for performance improvements hold true, they will become cost competitive with CCFL sooner rather than later. A third factor is the ground swell of backlight innovation currently underway to replace films and other light management structures. The combination of these three factors is now likely to lead to cost-competitive LED backlight units by 2007 in 32" LCD-TVs, with larger sizes competitive in the following years. Couple this with the possibility of a company making a strategic decision to convert to LED backlights, and the factors are all in place to enable a rapid transition away from CCFL to LED-based backlight units beginning in 2008. Intelligent backlights, particularly dimmable versions, will also make faster in-roads than commonly expected. Additionally, industry growth and technology changes will create headaches for CCFL BLU makers. We think CCFL shortages are likely to develop in 2007 because CCFL makers will be reluctant to invest in capacity that won't be needed after the transition to LEDs. The following graph shows the backlight unit forecast for the 40-44" segment by backlight technology through 2010, with the expected penetration of LEDs into the market. While CCFL will continue to be an important and substantial backlight technology, the bulk of the growth after 2009 will be in LED-based backlights. Details of this and many other conclusions are included in Insight Media's 2006 LCD-TV Backlight Report: Opportunity Analysis of CCFL and Alternative Technologies. The report is co-authored by Peter Jamieson, a 35-year 3M veteran with extensive experience in LCD materials and projection systems. Matthew Brennesholtz, the author of the reference text book, "Projection Displays", provided additional analysis on the LED backlight opportunity. Brennesholtz pioneered his in-depth LED price-performance modeling in the "LED Projection Systems Report", which was augmented and extended to include LCD backlight technology. This was aided by two trips to Asia and one to CES to meet with backlight makers and LCD-TV integrators and validated with direct feedback. In addition to projection specific material, the 2006 LED Projection System Report contains an in-depth discussion of the technology of and forecasts for high-brightness LEDs needed for LCD-TV BLUs. The conclusions in this report were validated in a similar manor, including visits to multiple LED manufacturers in the US and Asia. Feedback on the report has been very positive and has validated our controversial finding. For example, Bob Boudreau, Project Manager, Corning Display Technologies, said, "This is one of the best written reports that I have ever bought... Good Job." John Langevin, Vice President Sales & Marketing, at Luminus Devices stated, "The report is very good. It confirms many of the assumptions that we made about LEDs for backlighting. If anything, I expect that we may see large size LED backlit TVs even sooner than you are forecasting." Insight Media analysts at the Projection Summit , June 5-6 in Orlando, Florida, will also discuss conclusions of the report. The 2006 LCD-TV Backlight Report: Opportunity Analysis of CCFL and Alternative Technologies is available for $5,000 USD for a company site license. For $8,500 USD, clients can obtain a site license on a bundle containing the 2006 LCD-TV Backlight Report, the 2006 LED Projection System Report and the HB-LED Supplier Matrix. For more on this report contact visit: http://www.insightmedia.info/reportinfo.php?2006lcd

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