DisplaySearch, the worldwide leader in display market research and consulting and part of The NPD Group, has released the Q306 Large-Area TFT LCD Shipment Report database indicating that Q206 worldwide shipments of large-area (10+) TFT LCD modules rose 28% Y/Y as expected, resulting in 23% revenue growth to $11.8B. Unit growth exceeded revenue growth because average unit price declined 4% Y/Y to $184. The effect of this price decrease was compounded by a 21% Y/Y increase in average display area. Display area shipments increased 55% Y/Y to 7.35M m (more than enough to cover 980 soccer fields). The average price per square meter of display declined 21% Y/Y to $1605, which was in-line with the long-term trend. DisplaySearch see prices rising for notebook PC and monitor displays in Q306, but prices for TV panels will continue falling. Most suppliers will therefore remain under margin pressure in Q306, but less so than in 1H06. Suppliers are increasing capacity utilization, and their financial results should improve through the year.
Korean suppliers (LG.Philips LCD and Samsung Electronics including S-LCD, the Sony joint venture) increased their display area shipments 58% Y/Y in Q206. These two suppliers delivered 54% of all LCD TV area in Q206, which helped them capture 46% of all large LCD revenues. Taiwanese suppliers had taken the lead in Q106 for the first time, but new fabrication plants coming on-line in Korea put the Taiwanese back in second place with a 41% revenue share. Supplier shipment targets indicate that Korean producers will retain the sales lead in 2H06.
In terms of shipments, trends and market share by application:
--Notebook PC panel shipments fell 2% Q/Q while rising 30% Y/Y to 18.1M units as demand weakened from Q106. A similar seasonal pattern occurred in 2004. Q206 shipments were 5% below the DisplaySearch forecast and 10% below supplier targets. The average unit price fell 17% from Q106 to $113. The 17% quarterly price decline applied to both traditional formats (e.g. XGA or SXGA) and to wide formats, because the areal price premium for wide-format panels has declined to zero. Revenues from notebook panels were down 19% Q/Q to $2.0B, but up 9% Y/Y. The 15.4 wide-format (1280 ◊ 800) panel continues to be the top-selling type for notebook PC applications. It generated sales of $706M in Q206, making it the fourth-highest revenue generator of all large-area panels. The 15 XGA panel remained the second-place revenue generator in the notebook PC market, but its share declined from 16% in Q106 to 13% in Q206. Going forward, DisplaySearch expects the third-place 14.1 wide-format (1280 ◊ 800) panel to capture second-place in revenues from the 15 standard aspect ratio panel in 2H06. Korean suppliers captured 49% of notebook PC display revenue in Q206. LG.Philips LCD became the #1 supplier with a 25% sales share. Samsung Electronics fell to #2 and AU Optronics remained #3. However, the combined share of AU Optronics and Quanta Display, which are expected to merge in Q406, would have made them #1 with a 26% share.
--LCD monitor display shipments fell to 31.8M units with the weakest seasonal-demand pattern since 2001. This was 4% below the DisplaySearch forecast and 12% below supplier targets for Q206. Unit shipments were up 6% Q/Q and 12% Y/Y, but average prices fell 18% Q/Q and 26% Y/Y to $131. The average wide-format monitor panel price was 52% higher than the traditional aspect ratio, because wide panels are generally larger and still novel. Wide-format panels were only 10% of shipments in Q206, and DisplaySearch expects this price premium to decline as shipments increase. Monitor panel revenues declined 13% Q/Q and 17% Y/Y to $4.2B in Q206. The 17 and 19 SXGA panel types were the second- and third-highest revenue generators among all large-area panels in Q206. They generated 41% and 30% of monitor panel revenues, respectively. The venerable 15 XGA panel generated 9% of revenues, but the new 19 Wide (1440 ◊ 900) panel will most likely capture the third-place position in 2H06. Samsung Electronics was the top supplier of monitor panels in Q206 with a 22% revenue share. AU Optronics (separate from Quanta Display) was #2 and LG.Philips LCD was #3. Chi Mei Optronics was #4 with a 12% share, and Chunghwa Picture Tubes was #5 with an 11% share for the quarter. Taiwanese suppliers led this market with a 54% sales share.
--LCD TV module shipments rose to 11.9M units, which was 6% above the DisplaySearch forecast but 18% below supplier targets for Q206. Shipments rose 6% Q/Q and 99% Y/Y despite seasonally weak TV set demand, as distribution channels began gearing up for holiday season sales. This bodes well for LCD TV demand and confirms that the excess inventory build up in 1H06 has largely been worked out. The average TV display area increased 36% from Q205 and 9% from Q106, which raised the average unit price 12% Y/Y. The average price per square meter of TV display was down 18% Y/Y, and area shipments were up 171% Y/Y to generate revenues of $5.2B. Sales were up only 2% Q/Q, but 122% Y/Y, as the average price per square meter fell 12% from Q106. The 32 HDTV (1366 ◊ 768) panel became the top grossing large panel in all applications for Q206 with a 15% share of the entire large-area market and a 35% share of TV display sales. 40 and 37 were the second- and third-highest grossing TV sizes with 6% and 5% shares, respectively. Samsung and its S-LCD joint venture were the leading source of TV modules in Q206 with a 32% revenue share. LG.Philips LCD was #2 with a 23% share and AU Optronics was #3 with a 14% share. Chi Mei Optoelectronics was #4 with a 12% share, slightly ahead of #5 Sharp of Japan. Korean suppliers captured 55% of TV module revenues.
Q106 Q206 Large-Area Output Share and Growth
Supplier Rank Q106 Display Area Share Q206 Display Area Share Q2'06 Q/Q Area Growth
Samsung 1 22.1% 24.5% 20%
LPL 2 19.0% 20.0% 14%
AUO 3 15.4% 15.1% 7%
CMO 4 12.7% 11.3% -3%
CPT 5 6.9% 7.1% 11%
Others 23.8% 22.0% 0%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 9%
For more information on the Quarterly Large-Area TFT LCD Shipment Report, please contact Richard Goldman at (312) 952-5679 or richard@displaysearch.com . DisplaySearch will be displaying all its reports at the upcoming 2006 China FPD International Conference in Shanghai from September 7-8. More information on the China FPD Conference is available at www.displaysearch.com/chinafpd.
About DisplaySearch
DisplaySearch, an NPD Group company, has a core team of 36 employees located in North America and Asia who produce high-value, FPD-related market forecasts, technology assessments, surveys, studies and analyses. The company also organizes influential events worldwide. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, DisplaySearch has regional operations in Chicago, Houston, Kyoto, San Diego, San Jose, Seoul, Shenzhen, Taipei and Tokyo. Learn more about the company through the internet at www.displaysearch.com
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