NEWS
Flat Panel Shipment Growth May Slow Over The Long Term, DisplaySearch Reports
[The following is a release from DisplaySearch]
October 22, 2008
DisplaySearch, the worldwide leader in display market research and consulting, indicated that flat panel shipment may grow slowly over the long term as the market reaches maturity its latest Quarterly Worldwide FPD Forecast Report. “Concerns over contracting consumer demand over the near term may grab headlines today, but slower growth may be a long-term trend in the flat panel market,” noted David Barnes, DisplaySearch Vice President of Strategic Analysis. “From 2001 through 2008, flat panel display shipments grew at a compound annual rate of 10%. From 2008 to 2015, the compound annual growth forecast is 4% due to market maturity, as flat panel displays have captured most of the market previously served by cathode-ray tubes (CRT). For example, DisplaySearch’s research also indicates that more than 80% of all TV sets will use flat panels by 2011.” As shown in Table 1, older technologies such as vacuum fluorescent and cathode-ray tube displays have experienced decreasing demand as newer technologies became cost competitive. Total display shipments (including all display technologies) grew at a slower compound annual rate of 8% from 2001 through 2008. DisplaySearch expects organic light-emitting diode (OLED) display and electrophoretic display (EPD) shipments to grow at compound annual rates of 20% and 15%, respectively, over the next seven years. Demand for high-temperature poly-silicon (HTPS) LCDs, used in digital cameras and projectors, may also grow at a double-digit rate. The primary active-matrix (AMLCD) technology based on TFT glass backplanes is forecast to see 8% compound annual growth. While this would be slower than the 48% compound annual growth estimated for the prior seven years, the AMLCD market may exceed $95 billion in sales this year. Any market that large approaches constraints as it matures.
Table 1: Leading Display Technologies by Shipment Growth, 2008–2015
Application | 2008 (millions) | Unit Share | CAGR | CAGR |
OLED | 83.5 | 2.2% | 85% | 20% |
EPD | 2.4 | 0.1% | 100% | 15% |
HTPS | 13.8 | 0.4% | 17% | 11% |
AMLCD | 2,034.0 | 53.3% | 48% | 8% |
DLP | 3.3 | 0.1% | 45% | 5% |
PDP | 15.5 | 0.4% | 70% | 5% |
|
EL | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0% | 0% |
VFD |
252.6 | 6.6% | -17% | -1% |
PMLCD | 1,315.7 | 34.5% | 5% | -4% |
CRT | 94.1 | 2.5% | -12% | -20% |
All Displays | 3,814.8 | 100.0% | 8% | 4% |
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