Research Points To HDTVís Mass Market Failure

Market analyst Forrester Research reports that ìHDTV wonít fly, but SDTV willîóas a mass market product. The findings, according to the company, are based on extensive surveys of television broadcasters, electronics manufacturers and retailers. No consumers were surveyed.The report, entitled ìHDTV Dreams, SDTV Realities,î outlined several major reasons by standard-definition television will eventually prevail over high-definition.- Consumers will not be able to afford the high prices manufacturers must set for HDTVís for years to come.- Consumes will fear obsolescence due to lingering unsettled standards and will stay away.- HDTV will be more prone to technical glitches, which will frustrate purchasers and cost broadcasters.- The majority of local broadcasters will resist the expense of upgrading to full HDTV broadcasting, opting for SDTV datacasting and multicasting that affords greater potential to draw incremental revenue.- HDTV content will be limited to only a few hours per week and cable operators will resist limiting their own channel capacity in order to carry broadcastersí digital content.The Consumer Electronics Manufacturers Association (CEMA) issued a rebuttle statement condemning the reportís conclusions.ìThe Forester Research results are wrong.î CEMA statement declared. ìOur HDTV research is based on consumer opinion surveys and consumer focus groups that included HDTV demonstrations. The results are clear: consumers want high-definition TV, and in demonstration after demonstration, they express a strong preference for HDTV over standard-definition TV.îCEMA forecasts call for sales of 150,000 digital televisions by the end of 1999, 600,000 in 2,000 and a market penetration of 30.8 million digital sets by 2007. However, those numbers do not indicate a percentage of HDTV sales in that mix nor to what extent the HDTVs will be capable of displaying ìfull-resolutionî as specified in the HDTV standard.According to an analyst at Forester, ìwhen given a comparison, consumers are very impressed by the quality of pictures produced by widescreen SDTV sets, and they will be more affordable to a larger percentage of the population in the near future.To plan for the future of digital television, Forester recommends the following:- TV makers should focus on the efficient manufacturing of widescreen 480p sets.- Local broadcasters should build multicast-ready station infrastructure and avoid high-definition distractions.- Networks should cease their pursuit of high-definition to avoid profit loses.- Cable operators should partner with local broadcasters rather than continuing adversarial standoffs.For more information contact Forester Research at 617 497 7090.