Risk-Averse Studios Plot Cautious Summer

He sees spaceships, explosions, slapstick, Happy Meals. Big-budget movies march by, one by one, sugar plums dancing in his head. Summer is his favorite time of year, critics and OscarsÆ be damned. This is the season for making money.And in summer 2000, the dream is closer than ever to reality. Even more than usual, studios are playing it safe.The overall slate for this summer favors sequels, actioners and a tiny smattering of venturesome pictures that are hedged bets to become the next ""Sixth Sense"" or ""Blair Witch Project,"" the 1999 summer smashes that no one saw coming.The climate is so tepid that DreamWorks' Robert Redford-helmed golf saga, ""The Legend of Bagger Vance,"" qualifies as risky fare.Indeed, films most likely to offer completely fresh looks are animated efforts such as Disney's ""Dinosaur,"" DreamWorks' ""Chicken Run"" and Fox's ""Titan A.E."" And the only two releases with any real front-end hype are Paramount's ""Mission: Impossible 2"" and Fox's ""X-Men.""That's a far cry from last year's drumbeat leading up to the ""Star Wars"" prequel, ""Eyes Wide Shut"" or even ""Wild Wild West.""Fox domestic distribution chief Tom Sherak chalked that up to spinmeisters trying to manage expectations. ""Once you expect a movie to be big, you're never happy when it does just that,"" he said.The studios are also trying for a better balance of budgets and genres in their summer schedules: ""That's why you don't see 13 big-budget films. Things are more spread out,"" Sherak explained.Last summer, there were 48 wide releases between May and Labor Day in September. So far this year, there are 42 wide releases planned for that period.So why are the majors gripped with such conservatism? With a nod to Percy Faith, consider these themes from a summer place:- Multinational owners are putting pressure on their units to shore up profits. ""No question, people are making safer movies across the board, and next year will be even safer,"" said one WB executive. ""With profit margins shrinking, there's only one answer: Cut your cost. Anyone who tells you any different is lying.""- Throw out your calendars. In movie time, summer begins May 1. Since ""Twister"" scored big on the first weekend in May 1996, distributors have used that slot - or even late April - as a summer launch pad.The past two years have seen lofty openings for ""Deep Impact,"" ""The Matrix"" and ""The Mummy"". This year's front-loaded early-summer hopefuls include DreamWorks' ""The Gladiator,"" Sony's ""I Dreamed of Africa,"" Universal's ""Flintstones in Viva Rock Vegas"" (all May 5, 2000) and Warner Bros.' ""Battlefield Earth"" (May 12).""We've done a really good job of stretching the summer,"" said Sony distribution chief Jeff Blake. ""But the one down side of starting earlier is things seem to run out of steam in mid-August.""Though it's a day off for almost every student and working pro, Labor Day is notorious for feeble grosses.On the other side of the coin, the Summer Olympics will be held in the fall to accommodate weather in Sydney. Many executives see that boosting overall box office receipts.- Momentum will propel grosses regardless of product quality.In the 1990s, the overall box office surged 65 percent to about $7.4 billion in 1999. Summer's portion of that - measured from the first weekend in May until Labor Day - grew at the same pace. The span contributes about 40 percent of the annual take. Last year, that portion rose to 43 percent, as summer hit a record $3.2 billion, up 16 precent from 1998.- As Woody Allen once noted, 80 percent of success is showing up. Studios use summer as a showcase for their brands, so even if nothing in the field tops $200 million, every contestant takes home a valuable consolation prize: attention.""In the summer, you have to make sure you get open,"" Fox's Sherak said. ""If you don't, there are seven pics behind you."" The need for presence explains the annual rush jobs shipped to projection booths dripping wet.""There's going to be at least one huge title every single week,"" predicted Sony's Blake, whose studio is touting ""The Patriot"" (opening guess when), Paul Verhoeven's sci-fier ""The Hollow Man"" and mountain-climbing picture ""The Vertical Limit,"" starring Chris O'Donnell.Alan Davy, a film buyer for exhibitor Edwards Theaters, sees an unusually full menu. ""It's possible to still have a great year without a mega-event title,"" he said.An informal poll of distributors, exhibitors and marketers yielded a handful of can't-miss pics: ""Dinosaur"" (May 19), Fox's Jim Carrey comedy ""Me, Myself and Irene"" (June 23), Universal's ""Nutty Professor II: The Klumps"" (July 28), Disney's ""Gone in 60 Seconds"" (June 9) and Paramount's ""Mission 2"" (May 24).Not a shabby group, to be sure, but marketers see plenty of opportunity to woo fickle audiences who aren't loyal to an obvious front-runner.""Hype will always be a part of the business,"" said one marketing exec. ""But this year, people aren't wondering if there will be any money left in the coffers after 'Star Wars' leaves town. It's not that kind of situation.""Although all release dates are subject to change, one studio topper is circling June 30 as one of several flashpoints.""It's too early to call serious head-to-head matchups, but one is clear. You've got Mel Gibson ('The Patriot') vs. a wave ('The Perfect Storm'). I'd pick Mel.""For Universal, this summer is a chance to repeat its surprising success last summer with ""The Mummy,"" ""Notting Hill"" and ""American Pie"" - and to dispel rumors of an imminent sale. The studio is taking a fairly low-key approach, with ""The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle"" joining the ""Flintstones"" and ""Nutty"" sequels. ""Rocky"" (June 30) stars Robert De Niro, Jason Alexander and Rene Russo, plus a cartoon moose and squirrel.With the Fourth of July falling on a Tuesday, Universal's Distribution President Nikki Rocco foresees box office fireworks during an expanded five-day holiday period.""I think the marketplace has been cultivated to keep people going to the movies,"" Rocco said. ""Exhibitors have done a great job with the new theaters. I don't think people are going to boycott going to the movies just because there's not a 'Star Wars' this summer.""But even absent a monolithic title to scare everyone else away, few are really smiling.""We're as challenged as ever in terms of finding good release dates,"" said the head of a studio marketing department. ""It doesn't look like it's getting any easier, because it's a very difficult summer, with big pictures offered by everyone.""Over at Warner Bros., execs have weathered the end of one era and the beginning of a new one, resulting in a 2000 slate without an obvious, WB-sized blockbuster tentpole for July 4 weekend.Instead, the Wolfgang Petersen-directed adaptation of Sebastian Junger's bestseller ""The Perfect Storm"" (June 30) is being touted as a potential critical and commercial double-threat.Warners' May release ""Battlefield Earth"" stars John Travolta. The picture's derived from a sci-fi novel by Scientology founder L. Ron Hubbard. Also on tap is ""Space Cowboys,"" directed by and starring Clint Eastwood.Always the dominant animated force, Disney also hopes to have a third straight summer with a $200 million-plus live actioner.Mouse House Distribution Chief Chuck Viane, presumably with a straight face, suggested that the summer starts March 10 with ""Mission to Mars."" But seriously, folks, Viane called this ""as big a summer as we've ever had.""Joining ""Dinosaur"" and the Nicolas Cage-Angelina Jolie actioner ""Gone"" are ""Coyote Ugly"" (July 12); ""Shanghai Noon,"" with Jackie Chan (July 21); and the Bruce Willis starrer ""The Kid"" (Aug. 4).Viane said the big Disney surprise may be ""Coyote Ugly."" After watching the movie recently, Mouse House brass agreed to move its release date up from fall to mid-summer.Jerry Bruckheimer, producer on both ""Gone"" and ""Coyote,"" picks ""The Patriot"" and ""Mission 2"" as the pics to watch.In addition to its Memorial Day Tom Cruise starrer, Paramount is high on ""Shaft"" (June 16), the blaxploitation remake starring Samuel L. Jackson, and ""Numbers"" (July 14) with Travolta.New Line, which scored big last year with the ""Austin Powers"" sequel, looks to be a minimal summer player this year, unless ""Town and Country"" is ready. ""The Cell,"" starring Jennifer Lopez and Vince Vaughn, is slated for an Aug. 20 release.MGM is opting for an August bow for ""Autumn in New York,"" with Richard Gere and Winona Ryder. The Joan Chen-helmed picture is the first film greenlit under the new regime of Chairman-CEO Alex Yemenidjian and Vice Chairman/Chief Operating Officer Chris McGurk.