Projection Lamp Supply To Fall Short Of Demand Says Insight Media

5-Oct-04

The current shortage of UHP-type lamps for projection products will continue for some time - and could get worse going forward. The findings from Insight Media's new ""Projection Lamp Supply Chain Report"" indicate that current lamp manufacturing and planned increases in capacity will not keep pace with the growing demand for lamps in business and consumer front projectors and microdisplay-based rear-projection TVs (RPTVs). ""Unless something changes, the rosy growth forecast for projection systems will come under pressure due to limited availability of lamps to power them,"" notes report editor and Insight Media President, Chris Chinnock. ""Our report indicates a much larger demand for lamps than most are forecasting, particularly for replacement lamps. This is likely to be the area hardest hit by the shortage."" For the report, Insight Media developed very sophisticated demand forecasts covering front- and rear-projection systems. For these application segments, usage models were developed, along with detailed analysis of the lamp lifetimes in these products. These models account for forecast uncertainty, lamp lifetime, warranty replacement, user replacement, time-phased rollout of products, and the installed projection product base. The result is a total lamp demand forecast that sums up the needs for new products (front and rear), replacement lamps, spare lamps, multiple lamps and supply line fill.The report also breaks new ground by revealing a rich understanding of UHP-type lamp manufacturing. Again, models are developed that include each lamp manufacturer's production line, accounting for each line's equipment capacity, yields, ramp-up production, product mix and utilization. These are summed up to produce a model for lamp production now and over the next few years. An appendix to the report provides details on all the major lamp makers. This framework allows lamp supply to start matching up to expected demand. As a result, we believe that by 2007, the lamp industry will be on track to produce about 15 million UHP-type lamps, compared to the 5 million produced in 2003. However, our baseline forecast for lamp demand calls for 25 million lamps by 2007. Even using a conservative new product forecast yields a demand for 20 million lamps by 2007, so shortages will likely continue. The report is available now and is an invaluable tool for better understanding the Byzantine lamp industry, and for planning lamp orders, new products, and improving overall understanding of the projection supply chain, which insiders acknowledge is still not very mature. For more information, please visit www.insightmedia.info.

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